node watch
Mixed state of affairs for ETH2's Altair upgrade - potential sign of how complicated the merge itself will be in 2022. 85% of the nodes seem to be running in a healthy state. Geographically, nodes are spread across 63 countries. Looking at the granular level (software running on nodes; versions etc) - only 50.2% of nodes are ready for the upgrade and we are a week away.
$9 billion distribution
MtGox civil rehabilitation (CR) vote passed - 83% of representatives (by creditor value) actively voted - 99% were in favour. CR legally comes into force around Nov 20th; Japanese law requires 2 weeks for official gazette publication + 2 weeks grace for any objections.
How will distribution occur
Fiat claims get fiat via banking channels or in-person visit at trustee's
Tokyo office. Crypto claims will flow via selected crypto exchanges; trustee will pre-select exchanges. Claim holders will have to on-board themselves onto one of these exchanges.
When will distribution occur
Claim holders have an option to take an early payout or a final payout. Early payout - my guess potentially Q3 2022. Final payout - again my guess 2023 - depends largely on Tim Draper funded Coinlab litigation.
What about market impacts
160k BTC is supposed to be distributed. Looking back at May 19th China exit crash day panic + only the most trustworthy exchanges (Coinbase, Bitfinex, Bitstamp, Kraken); 240k BTC volume was traded. MtGox wallets (under trustee's control) are the most closely watched items on the BTC blockchain with automated alerting bots. Each of his wallet holds 2k BTC. So majority of market volatility will occur on days when the trustee will perform bulk transfer of assets from his wallets to the exchanges. Furthermore, I am fairly certain OTC desks will be actively reaching out for introductions via crypto exchanges to bid. Lastly, this probably will be the last time such large offer of BTC will come to market (bar someone like Galaxy Digital or MicroStrategy liquidating in emergency), so there will always be an incentive to push prices down further. But, such an artificial price suppression is risky from cost & time perspective given the claim holders are highly unlikely to liquidate assets at exactly same time nor do current private (and some public) polls suggest willingness for mass liquidation.
Will the claim holders be made whole
No - claim holders will be lucky to get 20 cents on the dollar. Early payout - range is 15 - 20 cents per $. Final pavout - approx. 2% more than early payout if Coinlab litigation can be limited.
Curve my memes
BITO and BTF are going to be even more fun next week - Gary's aisle 3 may need extra protection. Oct 29 expiry - options max pain is 54k for BTC; 3.5k for ETH - I feel like we are already front running this today.
musings:
Did you know BTC got traded at $8k momentarily yesterday on BinanceUS? Am between 2 theories:
1) a market maker had a hiccup given the fluctuation seen on FTX's non-BTC denominated pairs at same time; or
2) someone's automated bot sneezed with size and was using assets on FTX
as a sort of a cross-collateral
Unrelated to above; in Defi world today around 7:26 AM CET - a liquidation on a pool of assets in Unit Protocol led to an auction event. Only one bot turned up to the auction. The bot offered to buy $3.0m worth of assets for $3.56. Yes, for three and half dollars!!! Am certain Soros will be jealous when he hears of this!
