Calculus
Coming back to the thoughts of mid-August with regards to ETH and reading some ETH dev discussions since than; there is certainly greater push to get to the merge asap. They are hoping to achieve this by early 2022 through prioritizing merge over new features on current ETH network. Additionally, looking at the burn rate of ETH over past weeks; the ceiling of ETH supply is still approx. 120m upon merge. Last 24hour burn rate of ETH is 12.7k (8.8 ETH per/min). Similar rates post-merge would lead to ETH supply reduction of -1.6% per year.
If 120m ETH supply ceiling vs BTC (21m max supply) then does that not make 0.17 BTC per ETH mathematically logical (all else being equal)? Money cycling through various crypto assets is quite apparent recently with various tokens falling-in/out of favour over very short periods of time. I believe I wrote about BTC early entrants being the major source of wealth dissipating into crypto space; and by extension seeing the DeFi drama around Avalanche (AVAX) vs Fantom (FTM) made this apparent.
AVAX announced an incentive program which led to price spike from $22 to approx. $60. Moreover, FTM came out with similar announcement soon after. Then AVAX drops; FTM doubles instead. Suddenly, folks realise some further clarifications with regards to FTM incentives such as vesting schedule. Voila! FTM drops; AVAX starts to recover.
This speed of move in/out hints at previous assumptions that source of large liquidity is similar set of group(s) who are rotating through various crypto assets.
Recent BTC/ETH significant price moves that come with good volume seem to be occurring only during a short period of time; which hints to it being a select few parties - what will happen if they step away; e.g. what about this coming long weekend?
Interest rates
USD % interest rate / annum on FTX International was around 4.5% about 10 days ago; currently its at 17% (paid out at hourly intervals - not compounded). Since the rate fluctuates on hourly basis; some hourly intervals are paying out @ 100% / annum rate. Not bad given my local bank gives me 0%.
BTC % interest rate / annum over past 10 days has gone from about 3.5% down towards 1% now.
Furthermore, looking at $ amounts borrowed on the exchange; USD borrowed is totaling $1.57bn whilst BTC borrowed amounts to $554m. Wondering, if the short interest given up?
musings:
Heard crazy EOY predictions by some ancient crypto folks + at same time seeing the NFT craze and $ volume I won't be surprised if it exits and comes back to BTC & ETH. However, no matter how much of crypto-fanatic I am; I seem to be feeling my old age by not believing in the predictions myself which are hinting at $20k to $25k for ETH; $150k for $200k BTC.
